When planning a new business, many people get stuck on one question: “How big is the market?” Whether you are applying for a subsidy, explaining your plan to a bank or seeking internal approval, you need to answer it with numbers. Reports from private research firms can cost hundreds of thousands of yen, but by combining Japanese government statistics you can gather well-sourced figures for free. This article summarizes five public statistics that are practical for new business planning in Japan, and how to write them into your plan.
1. First decide: who are you selling to?
The statistics you use depend on who your customers are. First decide which of the following applies.
- Selling to companies or business establishments (B2B): use statistics on the number of establishments and sales by industry
- Selling to individuals and households (B2C): use statistics on how much households spend
- Opening a store or base: use population and household statistics by area
It is also important not to define the “market” too broadly. Instead of “the food market,” narrow it down to the people you will actually sell to, such as “ready-made meals bought by dual-income households in the Kinki region,” before looking for figures.
2. Five free public statistics
① e-Stat (Portal Site of Official Statistics of Japan)
The gateway for searching Japanese government statistics in one place. You can search by keyword and download tables to work with in Excel. If you are unsure which statistic to use, start here.
② Economic Census for Business Activity (B2B businesses)
A survey covering all establishments and companies in Japan, showing the number of establishments, employees and sales (revenue) by industry and area. It is useful for figures such as “the number of beauty salons in Osaka Prefecture” or “total sales of a given industry.”
Note the survey timing. The final figures currently available are from the 2021 survey. The 2026 survey was conducted as of June 1, 2026, and preliminary results are scheduled for around the end of May 2027. In your plan, state “2021 survey” and replace the figures when new results are released.
③ Family Income and Expenditure Survey (consumer businesses)
A survey by the Statistics Bureau of Japan showing how much each household spends on each item. Multiplying “annual spending per household × number of households in the target area” gives an estimate of the local market size.
Rankings by item are also published for prefectural capitals and designated cities, which helps compare regions. For example, in the 2023–2025 average for households of two or more people, Osaka City ranked first in Japan for spending on city gas and for the quantity of shrimp purchased. This can be a clue when choosing products to suit a region.
④ jSTAT MAP (businesses opening stores or bases)
A free feature within e-Stat that shows statistics on a map. You can display population and households by district, and aggregate and output reports for an area, such as “how many households are within 1 km of the store.” It is useful for comparing store locations.
⑤ RESAS (Regional Economy Society Analyzing System)
A government system that shows regional industrial structure and people flows in graphs and maps. It moved to a new, easier-to-use system in March 2025. It is suited to understanding “which industries are growing in this region.”
3. Sample calculation: a consumer product
Here is the approach with hypothetical numbers (for illustration only, not actual statistics).
| Item | Figure (hypothetical) |
|---|---|
| Annual spending per household (Family Income and Expenditure Survey) | 12,000 yen |
| Number of households in the target area (Population Census, etc.) | 500,000 |
| Estimated local market | 12,000 yen × 500,000 = 6 billion yen |
| Share of the target segment (own research and interviews) | 20% → 1.2 billion yen |
| Sales target in three years | 60 million yen (5% of the target segment) |
Narrowing down step by step from the largest figure, and showing what share of the target market your own sales represent, makes your plan more convincing.
4. Four rules for writing figures into your plan
- Always state the source and survey year (e.g., “Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Family Income and Expenditure Survey (2025)”).
- Describe the calculation in one line (e.g., “spending per household × number of households”) so readers can check it themselves.
- Check the definitions. Figures differ greatly between “households of two or more people” and “single-person households.”
- Keep your own sales at a realistic share of the market, and make sure they are consistent with your sales plan, costs and profit figures.
5. What statistics cannot tell you
Public statistics answer “how big is the market,” but not “why customers would choose your company within it.” As noted in our first article, talking to prospective customers and recording “how much they would pay” and “what they use instead today” is just as important as statistics.
When LEONIA helps launch a new business, we also start by gauging market size with statistics, then listen to people on the ground and to customers to narrow down the target. With both numbers and voices, a plan is easier to explain to outside parties and within the company.
This article provides general information. Always check the latest application guidelines for subsidy assessment criteria and required items (as of October 2026).
Sources (in Japanese): e-Stat / 2026 Economic Census for Business Activity / Osaka Prefecture, rankings by item from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey (2023–2025 average) / jSTAT MAP / Launch of the new RESAS system (March 7, 2025)
Frequently asked questions
- Can I use data from private research firms?
- Yes. However, such data is often paid, and definitions or survey methods may not be published. A reliable approach is to establish the big picture with public statistics and fill gaps with private data.
- I can't find statistics for my product.
- Use a similar item or a broader category instead, and state the scope clearly, such as “spending on △△, including ○○.” Also look for statistics published by industry associations.
- Can I use statistics that are several years old?
- Yes, as long as you state the survey year. Adding a note on later changes, such as population decline or price changes, makes the plan more careful.